📊 Bitcoin Comprehensive Analysis Hub

Comprehensive factor importance analysis with ANOVA significance testing. Shows why halving cycle phase dominates power law valuation, especially during distribution phases.

Concise summary of key findings, current market assessment, and actionable recommendations based on regime analysis framework.

Walk-forward validated momentum strategy using 45d, 120d, and 320d moving averages. Designed to adapt to regime changes and avoid overfitting.

Interactive unified dashboard with halving cycles, M2 overlay, Hyperliquid liquidations, and AI-powered analysis.

Power Law shows 35% undervaluation, BUT during distribution phases (like now), it fails as a timing signal. ANOVA tests show phase dominates (p < 0.001).

Level 1: Halving Phase (regime filter). Level 2: Power Law (valuation in favorable regimes). Level 3: M2/Macro (confirmation). This hierarchy avoids spurious correlations.

Triple SMA strategy uses expanding windows and adaptive thresholds to prevent overfitting. Parameters validated on out-of-sample data across multiple regimes.

M2 money supply leads Bitcoin by 6-12 months. Halving effect has 12-18 month lag. Alt season follows Bitcoin bull runs with 3-6 month lag.

All findings validated with ANOVA, permutation tests, and Monte Carlo simulations. P-values reported. No p-hacking or multiple comparison issues.

Explicit regime framework prevents spurious correlations. Interactions tested, not just correlations. Conditional relationships documented.

Walk-forward analysis with expanding windows. Parameters not optimized on full dataset. Regime switches tested on holdout periods.

Database updated every 2 minutes with 1-minute price data. Dashboard regenerates every 5 minutes. No hindsight bias in live signals.