Halving Cycles — Current Filter

General trend · now · history.

Hover for day + cycle values

Now

Day 853

Current Phase

Distribution / bear

Current Filter

General Trend

Power-Law Historical Fit — Rainbow σ Bands

Log scale · actual BTC price · historical residual bands.

+3σ

$734k

+2σ

$426k

+1σ

$247k

Trend

$143k

−1σ

$83k

−2σ

$48k

−3σ

$28k

Historical In-Sample Fit R²

0.9139

Historical Fitted Trend

$143,328

Deviation

−49.0%

M2 Money Supply — Fuel vs BTC Response

M2 in gold · BTC market response in grey · normalized dual scale.

M2 money supplyActual BTC path

BTC-M2 Correlation

0.776

Optimal Lead

90 days

M2 Trend

Expanding

Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Cycle phases are heuristic historical context; power-law values are historical fits, not forecasts. Past performance does not guarantee future results.