Trading Strategies

Bitcoin price analysis with 45-day, 120-day, and 320-day moving averages

Current Price
$95,551
Market Position
CAUTIOUS LONG
Trend
Moderately Bullish
Volatility
Low
Triple SMA Strategy

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📊 SMA Distribution Analysis

Statistical analysis showing how price behaves relative to moving averages during different halving cycle phases

🌍 All Time Distribution Summary

All phases combined showing the full historical distribution with current dollar price levels

Combined Distribution

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

Historical patterns and current cycle position

Current Phase
Distribution/Bear
Day 635 (Q4 Year 2)
Historical Pattern
Bear markets last until pre-halving accumulation (~1.5yr before next halving)
Next Bull Phase
Starts ~Oct 2026
(Pre-halving accumulation)
Statistical Edge
Price typically below SMA120/320 during distribution phase

📈 Bitcoin Price History Across Halving Cycles

Historical Bitcoin price with color-coded phases. Green shades indicate bullish periods: pre-halving accumulation (lighter green) and post-halving bull markets (darker green). Red indicates distribution/bear markets. Vertical gold lines mark each halving event.

📚 Understanding Halving Cycles

4-Year Cycle Breakdown

🟢 Pre-Halving Accumulation (~1.5 years before halving)
Consolidation and accumulation phase. Early signs of strength typically emerge. Long bias.
🟢 Post-Halving Bull Phase (Day 0 → ~547 days / 1.5 years)
Primary bull market. Strong uptrend typically lasts 1.5 years post-halving. Maximum long bias.
🔴 Distribution/Bear Phase (~Day 455 → next pre-halving)
Starts Q4 of Year 2. Bear market conditions. Short bias and risk management critical. Lasts until next pre-halving accumulation begins.

⚠️ Current Phase Analysis

We are 635 days post-halving (April 20, 2024).

Expected Phase: Distribution/Bear Market (Q4 Year 2+)

According to the halving cycle strategy, we are in the distribution/bear phase where short bias and risk-off positioning is typically favored. This phase historically lasts until the next pre-halving accumulation phase begins (~1.5 years before the 2028 halving, around October 2026).

Historical Halving Events

Halving # Date Block Height Block Reward
1 Nov 28, 2012 210,000 50 → 25 BTC
2 Jul 9, 2016 420,000 25 → 12.5 BTC
3 May 11, 2020 630,000 12.5 → 6.25 BTC
4 (Current) Apr 20, 2024 840,000 6.25 → 3.125 BTC
5 (Next) ~Apr 17, 2028 1,050,000 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC

Key Levels & Liquidations

Support, resistance, and liquidation zones

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Liquidation Heatmap

M2 Money Supply

Correlation with Bitcoin price (0.899)

M2 Overlay Chart

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Lead-Lag Analysis & Predictions

Market correlations and predictive insights

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